Agricultural trade between Ukraine and the EU: facts for honest dialogue

Vitaliy Koval, Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food

Agricultural trade between Ukraine and the EU is currently the subject of lively debate, especially with the expiry of autonomous trade preferences approaching. In such circumstances, an honest dialogue based on facts is crucial. The European Commission's official report “Monitoring EU agri-food trade,” which summarizes the results for 2024, provides a factual basis for an objective assessment of our partnership.

Ukraine's role in the EU agri-food market

European Commission data show that in 2024, Ukraine became the third-largest supplier of agricultural products to the EU, accounting for 8% of total imports. The value of Ukrainian agri-food export to the EU in 2024 reached €13 billion, up 11% (+€1.3 billion) compared to 2023, confirming the Ukrainian agricultural sector's ability to meet the needs of the EU market.

The main export was grains (€4.5 billion), oilseeds and protein crops (€3.1 billion, +€709 million), and vegetable oils (€3 billion, +€946 million). It is important to note that despite a 12% decline in grain prices due to global prices, physical volumes of grain exports to the EU increased by 6%. This demonstrates Ukraine's ability to maintain stable supplies to the EU even amid falling global prices, confirming its reliability as a partner. In 2024, Ukraine provided 59% of all grain imported into the EU, underscoring its strategic importance.

At the same time, the EC report notes a 46% drop in agricultural import from Russia to the EU (-€865 million), mainly in the oilseed and grain categories, as well as a change in the shares of other suppliers, such as a slight decrease in South American countries (MERCOSUR) in grain export to the EU (from 16% to 14% in volume). This objectively strengthens Ukraine's role in meeting the EU's grain needs.

Bilateral nature of trade and resilience in the face of challenges

Trade is characterized by mutual benefit. According to the EC report, import of agricultural products from the EU to Ukraine in 2024 increased by 5% (+€173 million) to €3.634 billion. Moreover, considering the overall trade context (Eurostat data, 2024), Ukrainian export of goods to the EU amounted to €24.5 billion, while imports of goods from the EU to Ukraine amounted to €42.8 billion. This resulted in a positive balance for the EU of €18.3 billion, confirming Ukraine's status as an important trading partner overall.

It is important to note that the Ukrainian agricultural sector itself is a significant consumer of goods from the EU. Import of European fuel, seeds, plant protection products, fertilizers, and equipment is critical to ensuring the technological level of production and the development of Ukraine's export potential. This interdependence forms the basis of a stable partnership.

At the same time, it is impossible to ignore the extreme conditions in which Ukrainian farmers work. They continue to ensure production despite the war, shelling of infrastructure, logistical challenges, and rising costs. Their resilience allows them not only to feed Ukraine but also to remain a reliable supplier for the whole world.

Partnership analysis: key conclusions

An analysis of the data presented allows us to draw several key conclusions about the partnership between Ukraine and the EU.

Ukraine is proving itself to be a reliable strategic partner for the EU in the area of food security. This is evidenced by our position as the third largest supplier of agricultural products to the EU and the 11% increase in the total value of Ukrainian exports in 2024. The stability of Ukrainian exports is becoming particularly important for diversifying supplies to the EU, especially against the backdrop of reduced supplies from Russia.

The exceptional adaptability and resilience of the Ukrainian agricultural sector should be highlighted separately. The effective work and fulfilment of export contracts in wartime demonstrate the professionalism and resilience of our farmers.

Despite the significant volume of Ukrainian agricultural export to the EU, the European Union not only receives the products it needs, but also finds an important market for its goods in Ukraine, including resources for the Ukrainian agri-industrial complex. In addition, stable supplies of Ukrainian agricultural raw materials are important for European processing industries, in particular for feed production and the food industry, increasing their competitiveness.

At the same time, it is important to understand Ukraine's balanced role in the EU market. Providing 8% of agri-food supplies to the EU and leading in certain categories, Ukraine is one of the key, but not the only, partners for the EU, which supports diversified sources of imports. This means that for many other goods, the share of Ukrainian supplies in the EU market is moderate, which contributes to the diversification of supplies and market competition.

Historically, Ukrainian exports have also had a positive impact on price stability. As noted by the European Commission in 2023, supplies from Ukraine help to curb agricultural inflation by providing EU consumers with access to more affordable products. A striking example is the 2018/2019 season: even before any preferences were introduced, Ukraine supplied around 15 million tons of corn to the EU market, helping to close the deficit caused by unfavourable weather conditions in the EU and contributing to the stabilization of the European market.

A course towards a transparent future

When shaping the future trade regime, it is important to rely on objective data. This data refutes claims that Ukrainian exports are destabilising the EU market and confirms Ukraine's status as an important strategic partner whose role is growing.

Maintaining open trade based on clear rules is in the strategic interests of Ukraine and the EU. Our perspective is to develop a partnership to strengthen food security, economic growth, and sustainability in Europe. Honest communication backed by facts must be the basis for balanced decisions on the future of our agricultural trade.