Economic Virology

Economic Virology

By Oleksandr Kramarenko, economic observer

 

The biggest mistake of our sincere partners—and even allies—is that they think of Russia as just another country, a “country as usual”. But it is anything but. In fact, the Russian economy resembles a virus. Not only does it mask itself and parasitize developed economies, it also distorts everything it comes into contact with. And no, it is not doing this out of some abstract love for the dark arts—it is all part of waging hybrid warfare.

When we look at today’s Russia, let’s be honest: we are looking at a totalitarian regime that fully controls its banks, companies, and organizations—many of which may appear non-governmental, but in reality, only the signs on the doors are still “private.”

This misconception is costing the world dearly. These illusions prevent us from seeing Russian banks, businesses, NGOs, and even citizens for what they truly are—tools of the Kremlin. Every last one of them. These illusions prevent us from recognizing “all” (and yes, I do mean “all”) Russian banks as active participants in financing and servicing state terrorism—the official policy of the Russian Federation. These illusions hinder the complete restriction of Russian access to modern technologies, equipment, and materials.

Want to mention that the EU has recently criminalized the circumvention of anti-Russian sanctions? Let’s wait and see if they actually prosecute the executives of the countless European companies that are shipping high-tech equipment, components, and materials to Russia—directly or via “creative” intermediaries.

The Russian virus still spreads

Let us give some credit: Russian strategists have done a spectacular job. The twenty-year-old doctrine of General Gerasimov—this whole hybrid warfare idea—has been upgraded and expanded brilliantly.

Need examples? Look no further than Nord Stream 1 and 2. These projects are case studies in how to do it: mission, methods, and consequences—all textbook perfect. It is essentially COVID-19 attacking a body with a weak immune system.

In the case of Nord Stream, you can trace every stage clearly:

1. Infiltration – Setting up joint ventures or buying local firms;

2. Attacking the immune system – Corrupting politicians at all levels, NGOs, and political parties;

3. Reprogramming host cells to replicate the virus – Undermining political institutions, regulators, and market sectors;

4. Secondary spread – Laundering the profits, seizing more assets, creating “purely local” companies;

5. Infecting new hosts – Infiltrating political, state, municipal, and civil institutions;

6. Pandemic – Return to step (1), just on a much larger scale. Congrats—your country’s political and economic systems have been hacked.

And this would have continued, quietly and profitably, under the soothing rustle of Russian cash in the pockets of corrupt European officials. But then came the war. And suddenly, all those shady deals were dragged out into daylight.

So—what are developed nations actually doing about it? Systematically? Honestly—almost nothing. This is evident from the fact that, even four years into the war, European money continues to flow into Russia like a well-fed river.

Why tolerate the problem?

Is it step (2) that’s to blame? The Merkel-Schröder case did not exactly vanish into thin air.

Or is it the lure of superprofits? Take Raiffeisen Bank International, which absolutely refuses to leave Russia because its Russian subsidiary is making a killing from servicing foreign trade. (Translation: financing the war.)

Maybe it is about the “useful idiots”—those who believe that sponsors of terrorism should be treated like any other business from a developed country? Not ruling it out. Though in fairness, decision-makers rarely qualify as actual idiots.

Let us recall the tale of the frozen Russian state assets.

This story followed the classic five stages:

* Denial – Flat-out refusal to even discuss the issue (2022);

* Anger – Heated debates about using those assets, with doomsday warnings about the collapse of the global financial system (2023);

* Bargaining – Tentative approval to use the “interest” generated by those frozen assets (Spring-Summer 2024);

* Depression – Finally starting to consider using the “actual assets” (August 2025—here we are).

So clearly, nothing is impossible. But when will the same logic apply to the supposedly “private” Russian economy? Hopefully, if we stop sitting on our hands and start pushing our partners and allies hard enough, we can get there. Russia’s economy needs to be recognized for what it is: totalitarian and entirely geared toward waging aggressive war.

When will we activate the immune response to the Russian economic virus?

Want a macroeconomic argument? Various estimates suggest that military spending already accounts for almost 20% of Russia’s GDP. That means the Russian economy is thoroughly militarized. If a Russian company is not “directly” supplying goods and services to the war effort, it is supplying someone who does.

Want a legal argument? Back in July 2022, the Russian State Duma passed a law (No. 272-FZ dated 14.07.2022) requiring all Russian companies to provide goods and services to the military. Lawmakers justified it by citing increased demand due to the war in Ukraine and dwindling supplies due to sanctions. Legal entities, regardless of legal structure or ownership, cannot refuse these contracts. Oh, and the Ministry of Defense can change the terms of the contract “after” signing. If that is not a totalitarian economy, what is?

Want a purely practical argument? Just last month, Ukrainian hackers breached the information systems of the supposedly civilian airline “Aeroflot.” Surprise: the airline is actively engaged in military transport. A civilian airline running military logistics. Scratch the surface of any Russian company and you will find the grimy camouflage of Russian field uniforms underneath.

So what do we do?

Push the idea—hard—that the Russian economy is not just militarized; it is totally and totalitarianly militarized. Any cooperation with “anything” Russian should be considered toxic, dangerous, and—most importantly— “unprofitable”.

Yes, “unprofitable”—that is the keyword.

Because history shows: even European businesses, all of which are in the crosshairs of Russian aggression, will cling to their Russian partnerships until the bitter end. And then some.