After increasing the official hryvnia to US dollar exchange rate by 12 kopecks on February 27, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) strengthened it by another 8 kopecks at the February 28 trading session - to UAH 41.4313 /$1, according to data on the regulator's website.

"The dollar exchange rate is expected to remain within UAH 41.50–42.20/$1. The main factors that will influence the market will be the NBU's decision on the refinancing rate on March 6 and the policy of the US Federal Reserve," analysts at the currency exchange market operator KYT Group shared their expectations for the coming weeks in their February review.

In their opinion, the hryvnia may gradually weaken in the spring, in particular if the foreign trade deficit increases. Analysts predict an average corridor for the US dollar in the range of UAH 42.50–44.00/$1.

"The main risks remain possible delays in international financial assistance and an increase in the budget deficit," noted KYT Group.

The hryvnia exchange rate against the US dollar by the end of the year will be at the level of UAH 44.50-45.50/$1, experts believe.

The reference rate as of 12:00 on Friday was set by the NBU at UAH 41.4341 /$1 against UAH 41.5274/$1 on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the dollar fell in price on the cash market on Friday: when buying, its rate decreased by 3 kopecks, to UAH 41.53/$1, and when selling - by 1 kopeck, to UAH 41.64/$1.

As reported, the Cabinet of Ministers set the average annual official hryvnia to US dollar exchange rate in the 2025 state budget at UAH 45/$1.

In the 2024 budget, the government set the average annual rate at UAH 40.7/$1, and at the end of the year - UAH 42.1/$1. Over the past year, the hryvnia weakened by 10.6% at the official rate, or by UAH 4.02 - to UAH 42.0390/$1.

Ukraine's international reserves as of February 1, 2025, according to preliminary data, amounted to $43.003 billion, in January they decreased by 1.8%, or by $785 million, and net international reserves - by $790 million, or by 2.7% - to $28.313 billion.