Business activity expectations in May become positive again – NBU survey

The Business Expectations Index (BEI), which is calculated by the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) on a scale from zero to 100, increased by 1.4 points in May, to 50.8, which is 2.8 points higher than the level of May 2024 (48.0), the regulator said on its website.

"Lively consumer demand, a stable situation in the energy sector, the receipt of international financial assistance, as well as the seasonal factor influenced the optimistic expectations of enterprises in all sectors of the economy. At the same time, the increasing shelling of critically important facilities, exchange rate and inflation expectations, as well as the shortage of qualified personnel remained restraining factors," the National Bank commented on the results.

According to the survey results, construction demonstrated the highest assessment of the level of business activity, 51.5 points, which is 4.3 points more than in April 2025. The indicator is also 1.7 points higher than in May 2024.

The regulator explains this by stable domestic demand and seasonality of construction: construction company managers were the only ones among other sectors to continue to expect an increase in the total number of employees some 51.7 points, although in April the indicator was at 51.9 points.

"Builders are set for a further increase in prices for products (services) of their own production, despite the expected slowdown in the growth rate of purchase prices," the NBU said.

In industry, compared to April, the index fell by 0.7 points, to 51.1 points, while in May 2024 it was 48.8 points.

"Lively consumer sentiment and a stable situation in the energy sector contributed to a stable positive assessment of the business activity of industrial enterprises for the fourth consecutive month," the regulator said.

Enterprises in the sector continued to demonstrate intentions to reduce the volume of work in progress and stocks of raw materials and materials: the corresponding indices were 47.3 points and 48.3 points (some 47.2 points and 48.3 points in April).

Estimates of the balance of finished goods remain pessimistic: the index is 52.5 points against 53.2 points in April, and the assessment of the total number of employees was the most restrained among other respondents some 47.3 points (47.2 points in April).

For the first time since May 2024, service enterprises optimistically assessed the results of their current activities 50.9 points, while in April BEI was 46.3 points.

The NBU explains this result by the adjustment of logistics chains, as well as the revival of demand.

"Estimates regarding the total number of employees still remained pessimistic: BEI some 48.0 points (in April some 47.9)," the regulator said.

At the same time, respondents in the industry were set on increasing the volume of services provided, the volume of new orders for services, as well as the volume of services in the process of execution: BEI some 53.3, 54.3 and 51.3 respectively (in April some 45.4, 47.1 and 47.9 respectively).

The most restrained was the trade sector, which lowered its assessment of business activity by 0.9 points to 50.3 points.

"Respondents were less confident in expecting an increase in trade turnover and weakened their assessments of the volume of purchases of goods for sale: BEI some 53.8 and 49.7, respectively (in April some 55.4 and 51.9, respectively)," the National Bank said.

In addition, trading companies were set to reduce inventories/remains of goods for sale: BEI some 55.6 (in April some 48.1), and the trade margin, according to respondents, will continue to decrease: BEI some 39.2 (in April some 44.2).

It is specified that the monthly survey of enterprises was conducted from May 5 to 23, 2025. Some 565 enterprises participated in it. Among the respondents, 42.5% were industrial companies, 26.9% were in the services sector, 25.3% were in trade, 5.3% were in construction; 27.6% of respondents are large enterprises, 27.8% are medium-sized, 44.6% are small.

At the same time, 31.2% of surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 9.9% only export operations, 18.2% only import, 40.7% do not carry out external economic operations.