Bankers expect NBU to maintain key policy rate at 15.5% - poll
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), given the inflation rate in April of 15.1% and macroeconomic indicators, will leave the key policy rate at 15.5% per annum at the next meeting on June 5, according to the vast majority of bankers surveyed by Interfax-Ukraine.
"Although inflation is currently continuing to grow, I expect that the NBU will leave the rate unchanged at the next meeting. Maintaining the rate at the current level allows us to maintain a balance between containing inflation and supporting a gradual economic recovery," Inna Provotar, head of the management accounting and business analysis department at OTP Bank, told the agency.
According to her forecast, the regulator will take into account the expected easing of inflationary pressure at the end of the summer, due to a decrease in the base effect, stabilization of import prices and a general improvement in inflation expectations.
"I expect that at the June meeting of the National Bank of Ukraine's board, the refinancing rate will remain at 15.5%. Currently, macroeconomic conditions do not provide sufficient grounds for its change," commented Ivan Svitek, shareholder and chairman of the board of Unex Bank.
In his opinion, in conditions where inflation expectations remain stable and the economy is still vulnerable, the NBU will probably consider it appropriate to maintain the current rate level.
"A too early decrease may create risks for price stability and the foreign exchange market, while an increase would look premature and could create additional pressure on the cost of lending," the banker added.
"We do not predict changes in the NBU rate at the meeting on June 5, 2025," director of the retail clients department of Kredobank Oleksandr Suprunovych shares the same opinion.
He believes that maintaining the rate is consistent with the National Bank's consistent policy in terms of stabilizing the foreign exchange market, controlling inflation expectations, and maintaining the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments.
"We are considering the base scenario - maintaining the rate at the current level, given that the foreign exchange market remains relatively stable, but inflation data for May 2025 will also be an important indicator when making a decision," added Suprunovych.
The director of the analytical research department of Raiffeisen Bank, Oleksandr Pecherytsyn, shares the opinion with colleagues that the NBU will leave the rate at 15.5% per annum.
"The National Bank will most likely leave the key policy rate at the current level of 15.5%. We believe that recent trends indicate the weakening of inflationary pressure, and a rather noticeable change in the trend will occur in May-June," he commented.
The banker emphasizes that in April, for the first time in the last 12 months, there was a decrease in annual underlying inflation, which can be considered as a cautious signal regarding the impact of the NBU's monetary policy on inflationary processes.