Rye deficit and rye bread price increase in 2025/2026 MY will be 100% - industry association

The rye deficit in the 2025/2026 season will be 100%, which will inevitably lead to a rise in the price of rye bread, director of the Millers of Ukraine union Rodion Rybchynsky said in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.

"We can say with confidence that there will be a 100% rye deficit in the 2025/2026 season. Already now, Polish rye is partially processed in Ukraine, and bakers use Baltic rye flour. Unfortunately, this is already our reality," he said.

According to the head of the industry association, the reason for the rye shortage is the reluctance of agricultural producers to sow the crop, since its yield is a third lower than that of wheat - up to 40 centners/ha versus 60 centners/ha, respectively.

In addition, previously the entire deficit was covered from Belarus, which led to a reduction in rye production in Ukraine - it was difficult for farmers to compete with supplies from Belarus. At the same time, rye is not a popular export crop. Rye is in demand only on the domestic market.

Rybchynsky drew attention to the fact that currently the price of rye is more than competitive: if in 2024 1 tonne of rye cost UAH 6,000-7,000, then as of May 2025 – UAH 12,000-14,000.

Answering the question of whether the rye shortage will lead to an increase in the price of rye bread, the expert emphasized that it will definitely increase in price.

"Currently, the price of Ukrainian rye flour is UAH 18,000 per tonne, from imported raw materials - about UAH 20,000, while last year in May rye flour cost UAH 10,000. This will not just be an increase in the price of rye bread - many manufacturers of bakery products will simply stop baking it," he stressed.

The head of the Millers of Ukraine union predicts that in the 2025/2026 marketing year, Ukraine will live with a deficit of rye and will buy it on foreign markets at European prices. This will make rye interesting for Ukrainian farmers. Therefore, in the 2026/2027 MY, agricultural producers will most likely increase the area under rye, which will be able to level the situation on the market.