Ukraine's National Bank net FX interventions drop 8.4% last week
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reduced its foreign currency sales on the interbank market last week by $53 million, or 8.4%, to $585.8 million, amid virtually no purchases, according to data published on the regulator’s website.
The NBU noted that it purchased $0.5 million in foreign currency last week – its first purchase in two weeks.
Throughout the week, the NBU’s net interventions remained negative, with daily deficits ranging from $11.3 million on Monday, $11.6 million on Tuesday, $13.2 million on Wednesday, and $8.5 million on Thursday.
The official hryvnia exchange rate fluctuated from UAH 41.4018/$1 at the beginning of the week, weakening to UAH 41.5566/$1 on Wednesday, before closing the week at UAH 41.4466/$1.
On the cash market, the hryvnia’s rate remained practically unchanged over the week: around UAH 41.40/$1 for buying and UAH 41.45/$1 for selling.
“Late May 2025 has been marked by moderate stability in Ukraine’s foreign exchange market, with no shock fluctuations despite external turbulence and a challenging geopolitical environment. The national currency has maintained a controlled exchange rate against the U.S. dollar, while the euro/hryvnia pair continues to exhibit elevated volatility due to global trends and internal structural shifts in currency preferences among businesses and the public,” said experts from KYT Group, a major player in Ukraine’s retail forex market.
They forecast that in the medium term (2–4 months), the $1/UAH exchange rate could return to the range of UAH 41.80–42.50/$1, contingent on rising imports, higher domestic inflation, or significant developments in external financing.
In the longer term (6+ months), KYT Group expects a likely shift toward UAH 43.00–45.00/$1 or potentially higher.
The review is available at: https://interfax.com.ua/news/projects/1080324.html