Ukraine's National Bank net FX interventions up 23.7% last week

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its foreign currency sales on the interbank market by $138.7 million, or 23.7%, to $724.0 million last week, without making any purchases, according to data published by the regulator.

The NBU reported negative net interventions throughout the week, ranging from $0.4 million on Monday to $13.7 million on Tuesday, $14.1 million on Wednesday, and $11.9 million on Thursday.

The official hryvnia exchange rate depreciated over the week from UAH 41.4466/$1 to UAH 41.8335/$1.

On the cash market, the hryvnia also weakened slightly: the buying rate rose to around UAH 41.71/$1, and the selling rate to approximately UAH 41.80/$1.

"The U.S. dollar remains within a controlled range, showing minimal fluctuations under what could be described as 'floating stability.' This is made possible by several key factors: high foreign currency reserves, subdued demand from the population, moderate business activity, and predictable FX inflows," said analysts at KYT Group, a major currency exchange player.

Experts expect the exchange rate to remain stable within the UAH 41.10–41.80/$1 range over the next two or four weeks, with minimal spread fluctuations.

In the medium term (two or four months), the dollar may strengthen to UAH 42.00–42.50/$1 if import activity intensifies, government spending increases, or inflation accelerates.