NBU's currency interventions fall by 24.4% last week
Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) almost without buying currency reduced its sale on the interbank market by $213.5 million, or 24.4% - to $661.1 million.
According to the National Bank's website, the cash market recorded a positive balance of $2.8 million for the first time in a month on the weekend and Monday, but in the following days, dollar purchases again exceeded sales by $20-33 million daily.
The official hryvnia exchange rate decreased slightly over the week – from UAH 41.6409/$1 to UAH 41.7341/$1, while due to the weakening of the dollar on the international market, the euro rose in price more – from UAH 48.7823/EUR1 to UAH 49.1210 /EUR1, and on July 2 reached a new record – UAH 49.4093/EUR1.
On the cash market, the dollar rose in price by only 2 kopecks over the week – to UAH 41.6-41.7/$1, while the euro rose in price by 10 kopecks – to UAH 49.35-49.53/EUR1.
"In the short term (1-3 weeks), fluctuations within the range of UAH 41.30–42/$1 are likely without exceeding UAH 42.10/$1 in the absence of external shocks or short-term situational surges," predict experts from the large participant in the cash foreign exchange market KYT Group.
In their opinion, in the medium term (2–4 months), a return to the levels of UAH 42–42.50/$1 is possible in the event of increased import demand, increased budget payments or the realization of financing risks, or changes in the expectations and sentiments of the population and market operators.
As for the euro, KYT Group believes that in the short term, given external factors and stable demand, the euro exchange rate may head towards the corridor of UAH 49–49.50/EUR1 with a possible breakthrough to UAH 50.00/EUR1 if it receives additional external drivers.
In the medium term, the European currency exchange rate is likely to exceed UAH 50/EUR1, especially if the euro remains at its global maximum and the current international drivers of its growth persist.
"Keep your focus on the euro. If your business model involves expenses or revenue in euros, you should review the currency risk structure now, build a safety margin into contracts, or test possible scenarios of the exchange rate breaking above UAH 50/EUR1," the company believes.
