NBU's net FX interventions last week increase by 33.6%
Last week, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), with almost no foreign exchange currency purchases, increased its sales on the interbank market by $228.1 million, or 33.6%, to $906.6 million, according to statistics on the regulator's website.
According to it, this is the largest volume of foreign exchange currency sales since mid-February 2025, when the regulator sold a record $1.191 billion since the beginning of the year.
The data that the National Bank managed to publish during this time indicate that last week the balance of foreign exchange currency interventions was negative almost every day, except for Monday, when it amounted to $1.38 million. Already on Tuesday, a negative balance of $11.5 million was recorded, on Wednesday - $14.5 million, and on Thursday - $6.8 million.
The official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar strengthened from UAH 41.7842/$1 at the beginning of the week to UAH 41.7514/$1 at the end.
On the cash market, the hryvnia exchange rate strengthened by UAH 0.05 over the week: purchase - to approximately UAH 41.61/$1, and sale - to approximately UAH 41.70/$1.
"In July, the US dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia continued to demonstrate stability with a slight correction in a narrow range," say experts from a large participant in the cash currency exchange market, KYT Group.
In their opinion, in the short term (two to four weeks), the corridor of UAH 41.40–42.10/1$ will remain in the absence of external shocks or surges in demand from importers.
KYT Group analysts predict that in the medium term (two to four months) the hryvnia exchange rate may gradually decrease to UAH 42.20–42.80/1$ in the event of increased domestic budget expenditures, increased seasonal demand for foreign exchange currency, or increased devaluation expectations among the population and business.
In the long term (more than six months), experts do not expect a reduction in external financial support, so they consider the most likely scenario to be a gradual controlled devaluation of the hryvnia to UAH 43.00–44.50/1$. At the same time, the NBU's exchange rate policy and the government's signals regarding the macroeconomic course for 2026 may remain important restraining factors.