Traders artificially lower rapeseed prices before signing of export duty law – analysts
As of July 21, Ukraine exported 27,000 tonnes of new crop rapeseed, the market is under pressure from traders who artificially lower purchase prices despite the lack of objective prerequisites for this, the First Ukrainian Agricultural Cooperative (FUAC), established under the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC), has said.
Analysts drew attention to the fact that traders are trying to "squeeze" prices even before the official signing by the president of the law on the introduction of a 10% duty on soybean and rapeseed exports. If it is signed, the duty will come into effect on September 1, 2025. However, some traders are already manipulating the situation to make money on purchases at lower prices.
"The duty is not yet in effect, and prices are being pushed down. This is an element of traders' unfair play aimed at maximizing profit. Currently, there are no economic reasons for lowering prices," the analysts said.
They added that due to weather conditions, the rapeseed harvest this year is being postponed. At the same time, there are risks of yield losses due to heavy rainfall. On average, the yield in the country can be up to two tonnes per hectare. Analysts also reported problems with rapeseed stocks, which is putting additional pressure on the market.
The European market is showing positive dynamics: stock quotes on Euronext have increased from EUR 470 to EUR 490 per tonne. In the event of a stable trend, it is possible to reach the psychological mark of EUR 500 per tonne in September. The dynamics of the rapeseed market will largely depend on the behavior of soybean prices, with which rapeseed is linked as a stock indicator.
On the domestic market, the currency price is currently EUR 500 to EUR 540 per tonne, and the hryvnia price is UAH 23,200 to UAH 23,500 per tonne in ports.
"However, due to delays in the harvesting campaign and weak market liquidity, trade has virtually come to a standstill. Nevertheless, taking into account further weather and exchange factors, the hryvnia price has the potential to grow," the cooperative said.