Capacity of Ukraine’s bakery market stabilizes, to exceed 2021 in money terms by 15% in 2025 – opinion

By the end of 2025, the capacity of the bakery market will reach UAH 33.6 billion, which is 15% higher than in 2021 before the war. This indicates stabilization in the industry and consumer market, said Yuriy Duchenko, director of Kyivkhlib LLC.

"We have reached our tonnage. Based on the results of 2024-2025, we can state that in terms of tonnes we have a more or less stable market. This indicates that the number of consumers is also stable," he said during the Khlib.ua conference in Kyiv on Thursday.

According to Duchenko, Ukrainian manufacturers of bakery products are also increasing export sales. As of August 2025, products worth UAH 12.4 billion were delivered to foreign markets, while in total in 2024 exports were estimated at UAH 10.8 billion, in 2023 - UAH 7.8 billion, while in the first year of the war it was only UAH 4.9 billion versus UAH 7 billion in the pre-war 2021.

"Our products are sold almost all over the world. This is not only in frozen form, we are talking about long-term storage products: crackers, cookies, gingerbread, etc., which allows us to start distribution in Canada, Australia, and the USA, and not only in the markets of neighboring countries. Our recognizable brand - Ukraine - is really in demand in the world today," he emphasized.

At the same time, according to forecasts of one of the leading bread producers, Ukraine will increase imports of bakery products to UAH 6.3 billion in 2025, compared to UAH 5.5 billion a year earlier and UAH 3.5 billion in the pre-war year of 2021.

Kyivkhlib estimates the total capacity of the bakery market at UAH 33.6 billion in 2025, while in 2024 it was UAH 29.2 billion, in 2023 - UAH 28.6 billion, in 2022 - UAH 30.8 billion, in 2021 - UAH 30.5 billion.

"The growth in the bakery market capacity in 2024 occurred due to a 20% increase in product prices," Duchenko said.