Ukraine's National Bank expects seasonal growth in FX demand, but below last year's levels – First Deputy Governor

An increase in net household demand for foreign currency to $270–280 million in June–July, up from $250 million in May, falls within the margin of statistical error and confirms the effectiveness of the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) aimed at maintaining the appeal of hryvnia assets and relative stability in the currency market. This is in contrast to last year or early this year, when net demand reached as high as $1 billion per month, First Deputy Governor of the NBU Serhiy Nikolaychuk told Interfax-Ukraine.

"We remain relatively conservative in our forecasts. We expect demand for currency to grow, but not to last year's levels. In our view, last year's surge was largely delayed demand, stemming from the fact that households had been unable to freely buy currency in previous years due to restrictions," he said.

Nikolaychuk noted that last year's demand has likely been largely satisfied.

"In recent months, this saturation has coincided with the realization that investing in hryvnia instruments provides guaranteed returns, rather than risking losses by keeping dollars or euros under the mattress," he added.

According to the latest central bank data, net household demand for currency in August 2025 rose to around $356 million, compared with $777 million in August last year.

Nikolaychuk also said that the NBU remains focused on the issue of repatriating export revenues and continues to work with government agencies to ensure a comprehensive approach.

"The results are quite strong. In 2024, export revenues repatriated to Ukraine exceeded 2023 levels by $7.9 billion, or 19.5%. For the first half of 2025, figures are roughly in line with the same period in 2024," he said.

The deputy governor also recalled that when the NBU transitioned to a managed exchange rate flexibility regime in fall 2023, it made clear that exchange rate policy was part of the broader monetary toolkit, aimed at meeting its mandate of reducing inflation to the 5% target to ensure price stability.

"Our results show that we are delivering on what we declared," he said.