World Bank downgrades Ukraine's GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2%
Ukraine's economic growth in 2026 will remain at this year's level of 2%, and its acceleration to 5% is now expected only in 2027, the World Bank published an updated forecast on Tuesday in the report "Economic Situation in the Europe and Central Asia Region: Jobs and Prosperity."
"The economic expansion in Ukraine is likely to slow to 2 percent in 2025 from 2.9 percent in 2024 as Russia's prolonged invasion affects investment and business activity," the report said. Earlier, in June this year, the World Bank expected the growth of the Ukrainian economy to accelerate next year to 5.2%, with a slowdown to 4.5% in 2027.
The report notes that Ukraine's gas imports have reached their highest level in nearly two years as infrastructure damage has limited domestic production. A decline in agricultural exports has also slowed growth, driven by adverse weather conditions and the European Union's reinstatement of the pre-invasion trade regime, tightening restrictions on exports of key Ukrainian agri-food products. Export values fell by nearly 5% in the first half of 2025, amid a decline in exports to the EU, which accounts for nearly 60% of Ukraine's exports. The World Bank noted that Ukraine's economy is in a transformation process, and the emergence of new sectors and improved productivity in existing sectors is likely to boost employment. According to the report, among the existing sectors, information technology (IT) and digital industries have demonstrated resilience since February 2022 and are likely to contribute to employment growth in the future.
As reported, in July, the NBU once again lowered its expectations for Ukraine's economic growth this year to 2.1% from 3.1% in its April macroeconomic forecast. The Ministry of Economy and the government maintained their forecast of 2.7%, but Economy Minister Oleksiy Sobolev on the evening of September 24 lowered his expectations for this year's growth to 2%.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) forecasts GDP growth of 2.3% for next year, while the government forecasts 2.4%.
According to the State Statistics Service, Ukraine's GDP growth slowed to 2.9% in 2024 from 5.5% in 2023 after a 28.8% drop in 2022, the first year of full-scale Russian aggression.