Business activity expectations index slightly worsened in Oct, but remains positive – NBU

The business activity expectations index (BAEI) was 50.3 in October 2025, down from 50.4 in September 2025, being above the figure for October 2024 (49.4), the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) reported on its website.

"Businesses maintained positive assessments of their own economic performance in October amid the receipt of external financial support, robust consumer demand, and a stable situation on the foreign exchange market," the regulator noted.

Retail companies maintained the most optimistic estimates among sectors: the sectoral BAEI even rose to 54.3 points in October from 54.0 points in September and 2.4 points higher than in October 2024. This trend is explained by an adequate supply of new crop goods, stable consumer demand, and slowing inflation. Respondents expect an increase in trade turnover and purchases of goods, while simultaneously forecasting a decline in trade margins, albeit at a slower pace.

In construction, the index rose to 53.3 points (50.0 points in September and 49.6 points in October 2024) due to budget funding for infrastructure and road restoration, a revival in housing construction, and seasonal factors. Builders also reported increased demand for contractor services amid an expected slowdown in cost growth, while respondents noted a gradual softening of their affordability assessments.

Industrialists' assessments became more cautious due to the destruction of production capacity and high costs of restoration, labor, and energy: the sectoral index in October was 48.8 points (49.1 points in September and 49.8 points in October 2024). Respondents expected a reduction in new orders and raw material inventories, as well as a further decline in export orders, work in progress, and finished goods inventory, while maintaining positive expectations for finished goods output.

At the same time, in the services sector, the BAEI fell to 48.7 points compared to 49.4 points in September, but exceeded the October 2024 level, when it was 47.2 points. Due to complications and increased costs of logistics, the destruction of railway infrastructure, and a shortage of personnel, respondents predicted a reduction in new orders for services, but expected continued growth in the volume of services provided and services in progress.

Industry, construction, and trade expect a slowdown in the growth of supplier purchase prices, while the service sector predicts an acceleration in cost growth and a corresponding increase in prices for its own services.

"The situation on the labor market remained uneven: construction and trade are expecting an increase in the number of workers, while industry and the service sector are forecasting a reduction in personnel," the National Bank reported.

The survey was conducted from October 6 to 23, 2025. A total of 593 enterprises participated: 43% were industrial companies, 26% were in the service sector, 25.1% were in trade, and 5.9% were in construction. By size, the respondents were 29.8% large, 28.5% medium, and 41.7% small.

At the same time, 33.2% of the surveyed enterprises carry out export and import operations, 8.9% - only export operations, 17.9% - only import operations, 40.0% do not carry out foreign economic operations.