Bankers expect Ukraine's National Bank to keep key policy rate at 15.5%
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 15.5% per annum following its December 11 meeting, according to the majority of bankers surveyed by Interfax-Ukraine.
"Actual inflation remains significantly above the target, and uncertainty over international financing for 2025 has increased," said Oleh Trybulkin, Deputy Chairman of the Management Board and Head of Risk Management at A-Bank, explaining why he anticipates no rate change.
He noted that while the agreement reached with the IMF on a new Extended Fund Facility (EFF) was a positive development after the October meeting, risks have heightened due to attacks on energy infrastructure, rising logistics costs, and external uncertainty.
"We do not expect any changes to the key rate at the December meeting, although the NBU previously considered the possibility of lowering it," said Serhiy Hnezdilov, Head of International Markets and Currency Circulation at Radabank.
In his view, power supply issues during the winter may restrain the reduction of inflationary pressure, making any previously discussed rate cuts appear premature.
"Despite favorable inflation dynamics in October–November, we believe the NBU will keep the key rate at 15.5%," said Raiffeisen Bank’s chief macroeconomic expert, Serhiy Kolodiy.
He explained that this meeting is an interim one and is not accompanied by a new macro forecast, which means the regulator typically adheres to decisions consistent with its previous projections. Kolodiy added that most members of the Monetary Policy Committee expect no rate change, while key risks include power shortages and uncertainty over external financing in 2026.
Respondents noted that persistent pro-inflationary risks and uncertainty surrounding external funding limit the potential for monetary easing in the near term.
Dmytro Zamotaiev, Director of Retail Banking at Globus Bank, believes that under current conditions, the NBU may not only keep the rate unchanged but could even raise it by 0.5 percentage points.
"The intensification of energy terror is reducing production and fueling consumer price growth. This could justify raising the key rate to 16%," he said.
He explained that energy constraints put additional pressure on the hryvnia, but the NBU is stabilizing the situation through interventions and a sizable stock of international reserves exceeding $54 billion. Zamotaiev added that attractive hryvnia deposit rates are helping reduce demand for foreign currency, which currently exceeds supply by 10–15%.
As reported, since early March 2025, the NBU has held the key policy rate at 15.5% for five consecutive meetings (most recently on October 23), after raising it three times since mid-December 2024. Prior to that, the rate had remained at 13% for six months, following a gradual reduction from 25% in seven steps starting in July 2023.