Fuel prices may rise by UAH 2 per liter over 2 weeks, but no shortages expected – A-95 director
Retail fuel prices in Ukraine may rise by UAH 2 per liter by the end of January; however, the supply of motor fuels on the market is more than sufficient and no shortages are expected at gas station networks, said Serhiy Kuyun, director of consulting company A-95.
"If nothing changes, in a couple of weeks we can definitely see UAH 2 per liter. Not great, but there's nothing we can do about it. The main thing is that fuel is available and will remain available. Everything else, as 2022 experience shows, is secondary," he wrote on his Facebook page on Friday.
According to the expert, fuel supplies in Ukraine are more than adequate. In particular, in December the country imported more than 800,000 tonnes of diesel fuel with consumption at 550,000–600,000 tonnes, which is a record for the entire 30-year history of observations. Current supplies are also stable.
According to the A-95 director, fuel prices may rise not because of demand, but due to higher global oil prices and the weakening of the hryvnia. In particular, over the first two weeks of the new year, oil prices rose by 10%, from $60 to $66 per barrel. Accordingly, diesel prices increased by $60 per ton, or UAH 2.5 per liter.
At the same time, the U.S. dollar strengthened by UAH 1 against the hryvnia over the first two weeks of January, while the euro gained slightly less.
"For fuel prices, this is the most influential factor, because petroleum products are entirely imported. A UAH 1 change in the dollar exchange rate means more than 80 kopiikas per liter," Kuyun said.
Thus, according to him, the combined effect of higher quotations and the exchange rate has already resulted in an increase in the procurement cost of fuel by more than UAH 3 per liter.
In turn, as First Deputy Prime Minister and Energy Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal said during the government Q&A session in the Verkhovna Rada on Friday, Ukraine has fuel reserves for more than 20 days and the country is fully supplied with fuel.