Ukrainian National Bank FX interventions rises 27.1% last week amid hryvnia weakening
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) increased its dollar sales on the interbank market by $192.8 million, or 27.1%, last week, bringing the total to $904.9 million, according to statistics published on the regulator’s website.
According to the NBU, over the first four days of last week the average daily negative balance of foreign currency purchases and sales by legal entities rose to $107.2 million from $67.3 million over the same period a week earlier, reaching a cumulative $428.8 million.
In the retail foreign exchange market, the negative balance over Saturday–Thursday, by contrast, declined to $30.8 million from $46.5 million in the preceding week, with sales of non-cash foreign currency exceeding purchases on all days.
The official hryvnia–dollar exchange rate, which began last week at UAH 43.0757 per $1, weakened over three days to UAH 43.1236 per $1 and ended the week with a further depreciation to UAH 43.3927 per $1.
In the cash market, the dollar rate followed a trajectory similar to the official rate over the week, and overall the dollar gained about 11 kopiikas during the week: the buying rate rose to UAH 43.12 per $1, while the selling rate increased to UAH 43.53 per $1.
Analysts at KYT Group, one of the major players in the cash foreign exchange market (Liberty Finance LLC), noted that in mid-January 2026 depreciation processes in Ukraine’s foreign exchange market accelerated: since the beginning of the month, the official hryvnia rate has risen from UAH 42.35 per $1 to UAH 43.39 per $1, while interbank quotations temporarily approached UAH 43.55 per $1.
In the cash market, the dollar buying rate formed in the range of UAH 43.0–43.2 per $1, while the selling rate stood at UAH 43.6–43.7 per $1. At the same time, the spread between buying and selling rates at bank branches and exchange offices has not changed significantly compared with December and remains at UAH 0.4–0.6 per $1, the analysts said.
In their view, the key external factors influencing the market remain expectations regarding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the persistence of a relatively strong dollar in global markets amid solid U.S. macroeconomic indicators and reduced concerns about the regulator’s independence.
At the same time, the domestic foreign exchange market is under pressure from a seasonal increase in budget spending and a managed depreciation of the hryvnia, with active involvement by the regulator through foreign exchange interventions.
According to the analysts’ forecasts, in the short term of one to two weeks the dollar exchange rate will remain within a base range of UAH 43.4–43.9 per $1, with likely fluctuations toward further hryvnia weakening. In the medium term of two to three months, the exchange rate is expected to move within the range of UAH 43.4–44.8 per $1 amid high import demand, the budget deficit, the situation in the energy sector, and inflows of international financial assistance.
In the long term of more than six months, they expect the hryvnia’s depreciation trend to persist, with a target range of UAH 43.4–44.9 per $1 in the first half of 2026, which will require the National Bank to periodically increase foreign exchange interventions to smooth exchange rate fluctuations.
