Three in four Ukrainians reject Russian peace plan, 54% back Europe-Ukraine joint proposal – KIIS

Russia's conditional peace plan, which, among other things, includes a significant reduction in Ukraine's army, refusal from NATO membership and transfer of territories controlled by Ukraine under Russian control, is categorically rejected by 76% of Ukrainians, while 17% may agree to Russia's demands, according to the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) from July 23 to August 4, 2025.

In May 2025, KIIS studied the attitude of Ukrainians to three options for peace plans; in July-August 2025, these questions were asked again to track public sentiment trends.

Respondents were randomly selected and read only one of the three plan options (to avoid the effect of the order of the questions).

US conditional plan: a group of European states, but without the US, provide Ukraine with security guarantees, Russia retains control over the occupied territories, the US officially recognizes Crimea as part of Russia, Ukraine moves towards EU accession and US and Europe lift all sanctions against Russia.

Conditional plan for Europe and Ukraine: Ukraine receives reliable security guarantees from Europe and the US, Russia retains control over the occupied territories, but Ukraine and the world do not officially recognize this, Ukraine moves towards EU accession and, after a lasting peace is established, the US gradually eases its sanctions against Russia.

Conditional plan for Russia: Ukraine must significantly reduce its army and limit armaments, Ukraine permanently renounces NATO membership; the cities of Kherson, Zaporizhia and the entire territory of Donetsk, Zaporizhia, Kherson regions pass under Russian control, Ukraine officially recognizes all occupied territories as part of Russia and permanently renounces them, Ukraine moves towards EU accession and the US and Europe lift all sanctions against Russia.

"Yes, 76% of Ukrainians categorically reject Russia's plan for establishing peace (in May it was 82%). Some 17% can agree to Russia's demands (up from 10% in May). Some 39% of respondents can accept the US conditional plan, and this figure has increased from 29% in May (at the same time, as before, respondents mostly emphasize that this option is difficult for them). At the same time, for a larger share of Ukrainians (49%) the plan is categorically unacceptable (in May it was 62%). Some 54% are ready to accept the joint plan of Europe and Ukraine (in May it was 51%). Some 30% consider this plan categorically unacceptable (in May it was 35%)," the study says.

In the regional dimension, in all regions the population is categorically against Russia's demands and only a small part is ready to accept its demands for peace.

In terms of how those who trust/distrust President Zelenskyy feel about the peace plans, those who distrust the president are somewhat more inclined to accept each of the peace plans. In the case of the Russian plan, although the share of those who are ready to accept is also higher, the vast majority still categorically oppose it.

Commenting on the results of the study, KIIS Executive Director Anton Hrushetsky said: "Despite the aggressive actions of the Russians on the front and the brutal air attacks on civilian cities over the past few months, Ukrainian public opinion on issues of war and peace has not fundamentally changed. Ukrainians, as before, demonstrate openness to negotiations and the ability, albeit reluctantly, to approve difficult decisions. However, the absolute majority continue to reject demands for surrender (which is what the Russian Memorandum is)."

During July 23-August 4, 2025, KIIS conducted its own all-Ukrainian public opinion poll Omnibus, to which, on its own initiative, it added questions about the perception of individual peace plans to end the war. Some 1,022 respondents were interviewed using the method of telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers (with random generation of phone numbers and subsequent statistical weighting) in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Government of Ukraine).

The survey was conducted with adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who, at the time of the survey, lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Government of Ukraine.

The sample did not include residents of territories temporarily not controlled by the Ukrainian authorities (at the same time, some of the respondents are internally displaced persons (IDPs) who moved from the occupied territories), and the survey was not conducted with citizens who left abroad after February 24, 2022..

Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of a sample of 1,022 respondents (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) does not exceed 4.1%. At the same time, for the peace plans considered in this press release, an experiment was implemented and we learned the opinion of respondents about one of three randomly selected peace plans (to avoid the effect of the order of responses). Each peace plan was evaluated by 324-351 respondents, which gives an error (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) of no more than 7.2%.