Majority of Ukrainians believe EU membership will bring prosperity within a decade
In 10 years, 53% of respondents see Ukraine as a "most likely or very likely" prosperous member state of the European Union, 40% are doubtful, consider it "most likely or very unlikely." This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on July 23-August 4, 2025.
As stated in the KIIS press release following the survey results, this time the respondents were read different conditions-scenarios of the future in 10 years. These conditions-scenarios were: 1. Ukraine does not have reliable external security guarantees and must rely only on its own forces and 2. Ukraine receives stable military and economic support from Europe without peacekeepers.
As the results showed, taking into account the scenarios did not give significant deviations in the assessment of the future of Ukraine. Regardless of the scenario conditions, half (51-55%) consider a successful future to be probable, while 39-49%, on the contrary, have pessimistic expectations. Perhaps, sociologists believe, Ukrainians already have a fairly crystallized idea of the role and potential of Europe as a reliable ally, so additional information did not affect the assessment.
It is noted that in the regional dimension, from West to East, the share of those who optimistically assess the future of Ukraine in 10 years is decreasing - from 57% to 44%. Moreover, this is due to the growth of uncertainty - from 5% to 16%. At the same time, the share of pessimists is almost the same in all regions - 38-40%.
In general, 63% continue to consider Europe a reliable ally, while 27%, on the contrary, believe that Europe is tired and is pushing for an unacceptable peace. However, among Ukrainians who still feel reliable support from Europe, the level of optimism is higher - among them 58% believe that Ukraine will be a prosperous country in 10 years, 35% do not think so. Among those who are disappointed with Europe's support, only 43% are optimistic, compared to 49% who are pessimistic about the country's future.
It is reported that among those who trust President Volodymyr Zelensky, the majority - 64% - are optimistic about the future of Ukraine. The share of those who are pessimistic is 31%. At the same time, among those who do not trust, the majority (54%) believe that it is unlikely that Ukraine will be a prosperous EU member state. 39% are optimistic.
Relatively more optimistic are young Ukrainians under 30, as well as Ukrainians aged 60 and older. The relatively higher optimism among young people is a positive trend, although it should still be noted that 38% of Ukrainians under 30 consider Ukraine's success unlikely in 10 years. Since people under 30 are often less dependent on careers and family obligations, they are more mobile and can more easily decide to emigrate.
As part of this survey, respondents also answered questions about their attitude to conditional peace plans from the US, Europe/Ukraine, and Russia. Those who are pessimistic about the country's future are more willing to accept peace plans from the US and Russia. However, it is important to note that in the case of the Russian plan of de facto surrender, the vast majority of those who are pessimistic about the future still reject it. "That is, despite skepticism about what Ukraine will be like in 10 years, the vast majority is categorically against Ukraine's surrender," sociologists emphasize.
Also, respondents who considered it unlikely or doubted a happy future in 10 years were asked an additional open-ended question - why exactly they think so. Thus, most often respondents explained this by the prevalence of corruption in Ukraine, inefficiency / dissatisfaction with the Ukrainian authorities, the reluctance of the EU itself to accept Ukraine, the fact that reconstruction will take more than 10 years and in general by the significant destruction of the country due to the war.
Executive Director of KIIS Anton Hrushetsky commented on the study, noting that the ongoing war strengthens the feeling of uncertainty and anxiety among citizens.
At the same time, Hrushetsky noted, it is worth noting that there are conditionally two important factors that influence the perception of Ukraine's future - trust in the Ukrainian authorities and the perception of Europe's commitment to Ukraine's success.
"When Ukrainians feel that the decisions made by the authorities are aimed at reforming and developing the country, at achieving justice, Ukrainians are more optimistic about what the country will be like in 10 years. Therefore, the harm from unsuccessful decisions (in particular, those we saw in July, but which, fortunately, were canceled) is not limited only to the level of trust in the authorities and the reduction in their prospects for being re-elected in the next elections. The harm has a broader and more destructive impact, as it sows deep despair in society and leads many to think that nothing can be changed in Ukraine and there are no prospects," he emphasized. In his opinion, the perception of European politics is also important. "When Ukrainians see the firm commitment of European allies to Ukraine, it gives them confidence that Ukraine is truly expected in the European family and will be provided with all the necessary support. However, it is important that this support has a practical dimension and that Ukrainians, in addition to strong words, can use European (or European-funded) weapons in their hands to repel the Russian enemy. The practical dimension also concerns specific steps that would lead Ukraine to full membership in the EU in the not-so-long term," Hrushetsky said.
However, the sociologist draws attention to the fact that Ukrainians continue to demonstrate amazing resilience and the will to continue the struggle. "And they will continue to resist in any case, since the war retains existential challenges. Ukrainians deserve hope - the hope that in the future, after all the victims and destruction, a dreamed-of flourishing country finally awaits us. Ukrainian society must do its "homework", but our friends in Europe must also have courage and determination in Ukraine's European integration," he emphasized.
KIIS conducted a survey using telephone interviews (computer-assistedtelephoneinterviews, CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers in all regions of Ukraine (the territory controlled by the Ukrainian government). The sample consisted of 1,022 respondents. Adult (aged 18 and older) citizens of Ukraine who at the time of the survey lived in the territory of Ukraine controlled by the Ukrainian government were interviewed.
Formally, under normal circumstances, the statistical error of a sample of 1,022 respondents (with a probability of 0.95 and taking into account the design effect of 1.3) does not exceed 4.1%. Under war conditions, a certain systematic deviation is added. In general, the results obtained are considered to be highly representative and allow for a fairly reliable analysis of public sentiment.