Ukraine’s first arms export contracts expected no earlier than late 2026
The defense export market is inertial: the first real contracts are expected no earlier than the second half of 2026.
This was stated at a meeting with journalists on Thursday by Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) Rustem Umerov and President’s Strategic Advisor Oleksandr Kamyshin. Acting Head of the State Service for Export Control Oleh Tsilvik and Executive Director of the Ukrainian Council of Defence Industry Ihor Fedirko were also present at the meeting, which was dedicated to controlled arms exports.
As explained by the NSDC, this is a normal cycle, since time is required for testing, certification, and procurement procedures on the part of partner countries.
Umerov noted that Ukrainian defense industry’s excess capacity should not remain idle: part of the production goes to the front, and part goes to export, while customs duties and taxes become a resource for new contracts in support of the Security and Defense Forces. According to the NSDC Secretary, this model makes it possible to arm the Defense Forces while also developing the defense sector of the economy.
At the same time, the NSDC emphasized that the opportunity to enter export markets is open to the entire industry. However, of the more than one thousand defense companies currently operating in Ukraine, fewer than half are ready to undergo the necessary technical procedures and obtain export permits at this stage.