Russia provides no evidence to back claim of Ukraine attack on Putin's residence - ISW

The circumstances of the strike, which the Russian side claims was carried out on Vladimir Putin’s residence, do not fit the usual patterns of Ukrainian strikes on targets on Russian territory, the report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) states.

"Confirmed Ukrainian strikes in Russia typically generate evidence observable in open sources. Such evidence includes footage, often geolocated, of air defense operations, explosions, fires, or smoke plumes near targeted objects; statements from local and regional Russian authorities, usually downplaying successful Ukrainian strikes as “debris” from downed drones; and reports from local sources and media of fire or damage to such objects," the report says.

In particular, it is noted that Ukrainian strikes are usually accompanied by videos of air defenses, explosions, fires and smoke, statements by local authorities about “debris” of downed drones, and other reports.

ISW suggests that the Kremlin intends to use this alleged strike to justify the rejection of any peace proposals that may result from recent negotiations involving Ukraine, the United States, and Europe.

"Since the Trump administration began peace efforts in January-February 2025, the Kremlin has sought to delay and prolong peace negotiations in order to continue its war undisturbed, prevent the U.S. from imposing measures intended to pressure Russia into meaningful negotiations, and even to extract concessions about bilateral US-Russian relations," ISW said.