Invaders stop their offensive in Avdiyivka area, resume offensive on Chasiv Yar on Tues – ISW
Russian forces did not make any confirmed advances in the Avdiyivka area on April 30 for the first time in several days, while Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces conducted several more attacks in the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar direction than near Avdiyivka, according to the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“One day’s worth of reporting is not sufficient to establish a pattern, but it may suggest that Russian forces are somewhat slowing down the rate of attacks around Avdiyivka while re-committing to offensive pushes around Chasiv Yar, as ISW recently forecasted they would,” the report says.
At the same time, analysts suggest that Russian troops may decide to attack from Avdiyivka area in the direction of Toretsk in addition to offensive operations in the area of Chasiv Yar, which will probably require the occupiers to hold a tactical pause to concentrate forces.
“Chasiv Yar is an operationally significant objective as it would provide Russian forces with a staging ground to launch offensive operations against Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka, which form the fortress belt of four major cities in Donetsk region. Russian forces would likely require a longer pause to reinforce existing units and redeploy additional forces to the Ocheretyne area should they choose to attempt to advance northward to the Toretsk area,” the message says.
According to ISW, the Russian Central Grouping of Forces (currently responsible for the Avdiyivka area) has created a tactical reserve of three small infantry regiments in the Avdiyivka direction, and ISW previously assessed that Russian forces have been establishing operational- and strategic-level reserves likely to support an anticipated spring-summer offensive effort.