The Russian military redeployed a battalion of the 76th Airborne Division to Kursk region as part of the accumulation of forces for a possible future offensive operation in north-eastern Ukraine and the city of Kharkiv, and are also forming the Northern Group of Forces in Belgorod-Kharkiv direction, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.

"The Russian military has concentrated over 31,000 troops in Belgorod Oblast; over 10,000 troops in Kursk Oblast; and over 8,000 troops in Bryansk Oblast," says the report for May 5.

At the same time, analysts believe that the Russian Northern Group of Forces will not be able to carry out a successful offensive operation to capture Kharkiv. "ISW continues to assess that the Russian military lacks the forces necessary to seize the city but that Russian offensive operations against Kharkiv or Sumy cities would draw and fix Ukrainian forces from other, more critical parts of the frontline," the report notes.

ISW indicates that Ukraine should seize the initiative in the entire theater of operations as soon as possible, since the transfer of such initiative to Russia in 2024 will present advantages to the latter, but U.S. officials have previously advocated for Ukraine to conduct an active defense in 2024 and prepare for counteroffensive in 2025. "A Ukrainian active defense into 2025 would cede the theater-wide initiative to Russian forces for over a year," analysts note.

It is emphasized that Ukraine's ability to liberate its territory and conduct counter-offensive operations depends on a number of decisions that have not yet been made in the West, in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, and any external attempts to impose a schedule for Ukrainian counter-offensive operations ignore the reality of the combat situation.