Ukraine could receive about $78 billion in international support in 2025-2026 – Dragon Capital chief economist
Ukraine could receive about $78 billion in international support in 2025-2026, but part of this amount is tied to the implementation of reforms, and the key uncertainty concerns the amount of additional funding, said Olena Bilan, chief economist at Dragon Capital investment group.
"We expect that we will be able to receive about $78 billion over two years, this year and next, under the support programs that already exist today," she said during the discussion "What awaits the economy in 2025 and beyond," organized by the Center for Economic Strategy on Friday.
According to Bilan, there are some nuances, in particular in the estimates regarding the ERA mechanism as the main source of support, but the total amount in our calculations roughly coincides.
"There is no great uncertainty here, except for one point, that part of this amount is tied to reforms. And it is extremely important not to relax now and implement these reforms, because we can already see that there is a lag in assistance from the European Union," the economist adds.
Bilan believes that the difficult situation will remain in 2026, and any slowdown in reforms, and even more so their rollback, may negatively affect the volume of external financing.
At the same time, in her opinion, the greatest uncertainty is associated with estimates of the need for additional financing, which is not yet confirmed. This, in particular, concerns the budget deficit next year, the size of which will largely depend on the volume of financing for military needs.
"Therefore, I think, despite the fact that we are receiving much less assistance from the United States this year, namely arms supplies, we see the European Union's efforts to close this gap," Bilan said.
She believes that one of the key assumptions is that, if the war continues, foreign military assistance will remain at least at the level of previous years with greater EU participation. This will allow Ukraine to maintain its own defense spending at the level of 2025.
Other important, albeit less decisive, factors are the volume of domestic borrowing and the actions of the Ukrainian authorities to reduce the need for financing.
"I think that Ukraine will need to take a step towards meeting and also demonstrate that we are mobilizing domestic resources in order to reduce this gap in the need for additional external financing," the economist noted.
As reported, the National Bank of Ukraine includes in the basic macro forecast, built on the assumption of intensification of Russian attacks on the front and air strikes on the rear, the receipt of approximately $65 billion in foreign financial assistance in 2026-2027, of which $41.7 billion is currently unconfirmed.
