Presidential Elections in Poland: The Victory of Karol Nawrocki and Potential Regional Implications

Olha Kasian, Founder and Head of UA HUB in Warsaw

Poland has concluded one of its most tense presidential elections in recent years. With a narrow margin, the victory went to the Eurosceptic and conservative candidate from the Law and Justice party (PiS), Karol Nawrocki, who secured 50.89% of the vote. His opponent, the pro-European mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, received 49.11%, highlighting a deep political divide within Polish society.

Political Profile of the New President

Karol Nawrocki is a well-known figure in Poland’s conservative circles. He has repeatedly voiced Eurosceptic views, criticized the liberal values of the EU, and supported nationalist approaches to Poland’s culture, history, and sovereignty. His election is likely to strengthen the position of right-wing forces in the country and create an additional counterweight to Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government.

Challenges for Donald Tusk’s Government

In response to the new political landscape, Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a vote of confidence (votum zaufania) in the Polish parliament. This move was aimed at reaffirming the government’s mandate to continue its reform agenda, particularly in areas such as the judiciary, media freedom, anti-corruption measures, and European integration.

This political decision also served as a signal to the public that the government maintains control over the parliamentary majority and remains capable of effectively implementing its program, even amid a new balance of power between the executive and the presidency.

However, with Nawrocki holding the power of veto, the adoption of certain legislative initiatives could be significantly hindered, potentially leading to political deadlock and delays in reforms — including those aimed at maintaining support for Ukraine.

Poland in the European Context: Lessons from Hungary and Slovakia

Despite internal political changes, Poland remains a full member of the European Union. The EU’s institutional framework, mechanisms of legal accountability, and financial levers from Brussels continue to play a restraining role, safeguarding democratic institutions and Poland’s foreign policy direction.

The case of Hungary, recently fined €200 million by the European Court of Justice for violating asylum regulations (with an additional €1 million daily fine for non-compliance), shows that deviation from European principles can come at a high cost.

In Slovakia, Prime Minister Robert Fico, known for his pro-Russian rhetoric, has faced criticism and warnings from key European leaders — including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — who did not rule out the suspension of EU funding if Slovakia continues to drift away from the EU’s unified policy.

Poland’s Constitutional Balance of Power

Poland is a parliamentary-presidential republic, where key domestic and foreign policy decisions are made by the government and parliament. While the president plays a significant representative role, the Polish Constitution clearly limits the president’s powers compared to those of the executive branch.

This means that the strategic direction of the country — including support for Ukraine — continues to be shaped by the parliamentary majority and the Council of Ministers.

Therefore, even amid political confrontation between the government and the president, fundamental changes in Poland’s foreign policy course are unlikely.

Impact on Ukrainian-Polish Relations

For Ukraine, Nawrocki’s election may signal a period of more cautious rhetoric from the Polish presidency. However, the institutional guarantees, transatlantic ties, and broad bipartisan support for Ukraine within the Polish parliament offer confidence that the foundation of the Ukrainian-Polish strategic partnership will remain intact.

Poland has become one of the main logistical hubs for supplying aid to Ukraine and was among the first countries to initiate military and humanitarian support. Its geopolitical role in the region and status as a leader of the “new Europe” make Poland a key actor for future security in Central and Eastern Europe.

Conclusion

While the election of Karol Nawrocki reflects political diversity and a new phase in the struggle between conservative and liberal forces in Poland, the core foundations of the country’s foreign policy remain stable. Donald Tusk’s decision to submit his program to a vote of confidence demonstrates the government’s readiness to act transparently and responsibly toward the public.

Ukraine, in turn, has every reason to believe that Poland will remain a reliable ally, continuing to support its path toward EU membership and the strengthening of its defense capabilities.