National Bank downgrades GDP growth forecast for 2025 from 2.1% to 1.9%, in 2026 from 2.3% to 2%
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has downgraded the country’s economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9% from 2.1% in its previous July macroeconomic forecast due to energy shortages, destruction of gas production facilities and labor shortages.
According to data published by the NBU on Thursday, the forecast for 2026 has also been lowered - from 2.3% to 2%.
"As per the NBU’s estimates, economic growth picked up in Q3 2025 thanks to the intensification of early crop harvesting, sustained consumer demand, and an improved situation in the energy sector, which lasted through the end of September. The expected increase in budgetary stimuli at the end of the year will support further recovery," NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy said at a briefing on Thursday.
However, energy shortages caused by the recent destruction of infrastructure and natural gas production facilities, coupled with labor shortages, will significantly hamper businesses activity.
In the following years, economic growth is expected to accelerate moderately on the back of larger harvests and increased investments in reconstruction projects and the defense sector.
"Investment activity will also be positively impacted by Ukraine’s further progress on the path of European integration and the economy’s gradual return to normal functioning conditions. This will be reflected, among other things, in the stabilization of the energy sector and the reversal of the negative migration trend. Considering the said factors, the NBU forecasts Ukraine’s real GDP to grow by 2% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027," the NBU governor added.
As reported, the Minister of Economy, Environment and Agriculture Oleksiy Sobolev, at the Question Hour to the government in the Rada on October 10, reported that the growth of the Ukrainian economy would continue in the second half of 2025. During September and October, it will be at the level of 3-4%. For 2026, the Ministry of Economy estimates GDP growth at approximately 2.5%.
The World Bank also worsened the forecast for the growth of the Ukrainian economy - to 2% in both 2025 and 2026.