The hryvnia to the dollar exchange rate at the end of this year is expected to be about UAH 42/$1, this updated consensus forecast of seven investment companies and analytical centers was published by the Center for Economic Strategy (CES), recalling that six months ago the forecast was UAH 40.5/$1.

It is indicated that the forecast for the average annual exchange rate has worsened from UAH 38.7/$1 to UAH 40.1/$1, while in the budget it is set at UAH 40.7/$1.

According to CES Deputy Director Maria Repko, taking into account the new exchange rate forecast, the estimate of the budget deficit in dollars remained practically the same - just over $40 billion, the estimate of financial needs increased by about $3 billion - to $53.5 billion, and international assistance by about $1.5 billion – up to $36.5 billion.

It states that the average inflation forecast for 2024 has been improved from just over 10% to less than 8%, while expectations for real GDP growth have worsened to just under 3.5% from around 3.9%. Moreover, if in December 2023 some analysts assumed that the economy would grow by 5% this year, now optimists estimate it to be slightly higher than 4%.

It was noted that public debt at the end of this year will amount to about 94-96% of GDP.

As for assumptions about the duration of the war, all analysts assume that it will last throughout this year, one assumes it will end by the end of the year, while two believe that the war will last more than two more years.

Experts from the investment companies Concorde Capital, Dragon Capital and ICU, as well as WIIW, Forbes Ukraine, Oxford Economics and the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) with the German Economic Team joined the development.