The most combat-capable Russian occupation forces are currently supporting the Russian offensive on Pokrovsk in Donetsk region, but it cannot continue indefinitely and may soon reach a culmination, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports in an August 27 summary.

“Russia's continuous and complete prioritization of the Pokrovsk direction will likely impact Russia's overall combat capabilities in Ukraine in the aftermath of any Pokrovsk scenario, especially as the Kremlin tries to balance gains in Pokrovsk with defending against the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast,” the review says.

ISW has previously noted that ISW has not observed evidence of Russia redeploying units currently engaged near Pokrovsk to Kursk Oblast but has observed evidence of Russia instead deploying reserve units and units from non-critical sectors of the front. Currently, ISW analysts do not predict the timing of the culmination of the Russian offensive in Pokrovsk direction, however, the redeployment of 30,000 Russian troops to Kursk region may eventually worsen Russian capabilities in the Ukrainian theater of operations after the culmination of the offensive in Pokrovsk.

“Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast has challenged Putin's theory of victory by seizing the initiative in a new area of operations while degrading Russia's ability to maintain the long-term initiative in certain sectors of the front within Ukraine. The Russian command is clearly currently prioritizing Pokrovsk, but that calculus will likely change depending on when Russian forces culminate in the area, and the command will eventually need to fully reckon with reorienting its priorities to repelling Ukrainian troops from Kursk Oblast,” the message says.

It is reported that Russian troops have achieved significant tactical successes in Pokrovsk direction and advanced more than two kilometers from their last confirmed position to the northwest in Novohrodivka in a few days.

“Russian forces appear to be prioritizing advancing along the railway line in Novohrodivka toward Pokrovsk instead of fighting through the entire urban area of the settlement … Ukrainian command likely deemed that defending Novohrodivka was not worth the potential losses. Novohrodivka is not an operationally significant town in isolation—its potential capture would in theory open the road to Pokrovsk (Russia's articulated operational objective on this sector of the front), but Pokrovsk is larger, more fortified, and ultimately more significant than Novohrodivka due to its central position as a key logistics node in western Donetsk Oblast, and Ukrainian forces are unlikely to withdraw from Pokrovsk without defending the city … Therefore, Advancing Russian forces are therefore unlikely to be able to sustain the current rate of gains indefinitely, especially if they begin assaults on Pokrovsk itself,” the ISW reports.