NATO Military Committee Chairman Bauer: Russia's possible attack on NATO countries is not about year when it might happen, but about possibilities
NATO Military Committee Chairman, Admiral Rob Bauer says Russia's political ambitions are greater than conquering Ukraine, but they must be backed up by the corresponding capabilities to attack the alliance's member countries, for which the Kremlin will need time.
"I am convinced they in theory can attack because they attacked Ukraine. But besides rhetoric, we don't see any preparations or any intentions to really move towards NATO. 90% of their land forces are engaged in Ukraine. So their capacity to do this now against NATO with their land forces is unlikely. We would see that. Can they attack with other means? They might. But we don't see any preparations in terms of that," he said Interfax-Ukraine.
Commenting at the agency's request on estimates that Russia will be ready to attack the alliance in the coming years, in 2026-2027, Bauer said: "The Russian ambitions are larger than Ukraine. We know that. So in terms of the political intent, we have to assume that it's not over when the war is over in Ukraine. That's one."
"Second, if you look at their military capabilities, they will have to reconstitute beyond what they are now capable of. If you look at their industrial capacity to produce tanks, missiles, artillery, and all the things you need, especially in the land domain, then they need a number of years to produce all this material. But that is based on the standards of capabilities they had on 24 February 2022. If you look at their intent to improve and to become better than they were at that time, then they need more time," the chairman of the NATO Military Committee said.
He also said that as of today, the Russian army has more soldiers than it had in 2022, "despite all the losses than they had in 2022." "So the number of soldiers has increased. But the quality has gone down. The quality of their material has gone down because they are using from huge stocks old material. Like they're now using tanks and armoured vehicles from the 1960s. But it's still tanks and still armoured vehicles. So they can still replace lost materiel, but the quality is going down," Bauer said.
According to the chairman of the NATO Military Committee, in order for the Russians to start a war against NATO countries, they will need to "produce a number of more modern tanks." "Can they? They can, but the pace at the moment is just enough only to replace what they're losing in Ukraine. So if you want to go back to this original level of quality and quantity, then they need more time. They can only start to reconstitute if the war is over, because now they need to produce to replace what is lost during this war," he said.
"So the answer is not a simple number of years. It depends on a number of factors. If the war is over, they need to be willing to continue to spend a lot of money on defence and not on other things in their society. So it's a choice for spending on defence and not on education, health care and the other things," the chairman of the NATO Military Committee said.
At the same time, Bauer does not believe that the Third World War is inevitable, because "it is always the result of a choice."
"And for example, nobody forces Russia to stay in Ukraine, not even China. The war can be over if Russia packs its things up and goes home, then the war is over. If Ukraine would stop the fight, then they've lost their country. And that's the difference. So, all these things are still choices. It's not unavoidable," the chairman of the Military Committee said.