Russian forces likely seized Vuhledar, Donetsk region, as of October 1 following a reported Ukrainian withdrawal from the settlement, though it is unclear if Russian forces will make rapid gains beyond Vuhledar in the immediate future, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has said.

"Geolocated footage published on September 30 and October 1 shows Russian forces planting Russian flags and freely operating in various parts of Vuhledar, and Russian milbloggers claimed on October 1 that Russian forces seized the settlement. A Ukrainian servicemember reported on October 1 that a part of the Ukrainian force grouping conducted a planned withdrawal from Vuhledar to avoid encirclement, and Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces began to withdraw from Vuhledar as of the end of September 30," it said in the Russian offensive campaign assessment as of October 1.

Russian forces did not completely interdict Ukrainian egress routes before Ukrainian forces withdrew but that Russian artillery and drones inflicted unspecified losses on withdrawing Ukrainian personnel, ISW said.

Analysts said the Russian seizure of Vuhledar follows a series of costly, failed Russian assaults near the settlement over the past two and a half years.

"Russia attempted at least two major offensive efforts to seize Vuhledar in October-November 2022 and January-February 2023, both of which resulted in heavy personnel and military equipment losses. Russia's previous defeats around Vuhledar notably resulted in the attrition of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade," ISW said.

It also noted that some Russian sources expressed doubts that Russian forces will be able to rapidly advance and achieve operationally-significant breakthroughs immediately after seizing Vuhledar in the face of Ukrainian defensive positions northeast of the city and the upcoming muddy season.