Long-term business uncertainty grows for second month in row – survey
Long-term business uncertainty increased for the second month in a row in September, with almost two out of five companies unable to predict their activities in two years, according to a survey of entrepreneurs by the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER).
"In September, the overall results were the most pessimistic and cause serious concern. Business confidence in the future has weakened, recovery rates have slowed, and long-term uncertainty continues to rise amid ongoing pressures from staffing issues, physical security risks due to the war, and rising prices," the Institute quoted IER Executive Director Oksana Kuziakiv.
According to the published survey results, medium-term uncertainty decreased: uncertainty about the overall economic environment fell from 23.6% to 17.3%, and uncertainty regarding the company’s financial and economic situation dropped from 21.9% to 16.2%. Three-month (short-term) uncertainty remained largely unchanged, but long-term uncertainty has increased for the second consecutive month, rising to 38.7% in September from 36.5% in August.
It is noted that the Business Activity Recovery Index (BARI) declined after rising in August – from 0.08 to 0.05. Although the changes are minor, a persistent downward trend in recovery momentum has been observed since March 2025.
Overall, according to the survey, 65% of enterprises are operating at 75% or more of their capacity (up from 63% in August). The share of businesses that are completely inactive rose from 2% to 4%, though it remains low.
The share of entrepreneurs not expecting significant changes in production over the next two years increased from 77.8% to 85.5%.
"Positively, most enterprises that can anticipate their operations over the next two years do not expect negative changes," noted IER Senior Research Fellow Yevhen Anhel.
At the same time, the situation in production worsened. The share of enterprises that have already increased production fell to 24.4% (from 28.5%), while those planning to raise output in the next three months declined to 42.2% (from 46.8%).
According to the IER, the best situation is in wood processing (5.3 months of output), while the worst is among construction materials manufacturers (2.6 months).
Regarding the workforce, 53% of enterprises reported increased difficulties finding skilled workers, and 40% had trouble recruiting unskilled labor. Labor shortages remain the most acute problem for entrepreneurs, cited as an obstacle to business by 60% of respondents (down slightly from 62% in August).
The second biggest challenge is rising raw material prices (52% in September vs. 55% in August), followed by safety concerns at work (52% vs. 51% a month earlier).
The survey was conducted before the blackout in early October, so interruptions in electricity, water, or heating affected 6% of respondents (up from 4% in August).
The fewest complaints were about damage to property or goods due to hostilities (3% vs. 4% in August), unlawful demands or pressure from regulatory/law enforcement authorities (2% vs. 3%), and fuel shortages (1%, with no reports in August).
The survey was conducted from September 16 to September 30 among 475 industrial enterprises across 21 of 27 regions.