Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited, according to the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for June 23.

“Polish President Andrzej Duda emphasized in a March 20 interview with CNBC that Putin is intensifying efforts to shift Russia to a war economy with the intention of being able to attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027, citing unspecified German research. Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen stated on February 9 that new intelligence indicates that Russia may attempt to attack a NATO country within three to five years, an accelerated timeline from NATO’s reported assessment in 2023. The timeline for the reconstitution of a significant Russian conventional military threat depends heavily on the financial resources Putin is willing to put against military efforts,” the report reads.

The Russian military continues to undertake structural reforms to simultaneously support the war in Ukraine while expanding Russia’s conventional capabilities in the long term in preparation for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO. At the same time, a number of measures to strengthen the military potential of the Russian Federation look like preparations for a potential war using conventional weapons with NATO, and not as part of the war against Ukraine.

The ISW also notes that ongoing personnel changes within the Russian MoD may be further indicators of Russia’s preparations for a conflict in the long term.

Analysts also point to internal financial preparations in the Russian Federation for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO, and not only for a protracted war in Ukraine.

“Putin is likely attempting to set conditions to stabilize Russia’s long-term financial position at a higher level of government expenditure … Russia does not appear to be facing imminent financial crisis, and increased military spending has been the most significant change in Russian budgetary policy, so efforts to secure Russia’s financial future are much more likely intended to set long-term conditions than to address immediate financial concerns,” the ISW says.